Revised OPEC Petroleum Production Forecast for 2021

According to the world Petroleum Inventory Estimates in 2021, the U.S. EIA projections revealed are more than expected according to the world petroleum inventory estimates in 2021 and greater inventory builds in 2022. The alterations are propelled mainly by estimated modifications to generation from Russia and OPEC due to the latest OPEC+ deal. Tensions over increasing COVID-19 cases have resulted in a decline in demand which causes a decline in prices of crude oil.

Therefore, the forecast for crude oil price remains almost the same from the July STEO. Here’s the revised version of the estimates for the net world petroleum production:EIA projects in STEO for August that the net global production of petroleum for the second half of 2021 will be average 98.9 million BPD, which is less than the earlier projection of 99.4 million BPD in the July STEO. EIA projections for 2022, world petroleum production, will average 101.8 million BPD—20,000 BPD less than projected in the STEO for July.

The OPEC+ agreed on a deal on July 18 regarding the increase in the production of oil. The deal announced production raise of 400,000 BPD every month beginning in August 2021. This deal is in accumulation to increase in production that took place during July 2021, including the full turnaround of Saudi Arabia’s intended cut in production of an extra 1 million BPD.

The latest agreement did not stipulate monthly output goals that leave accurate execution uncertain. The organization also settled to increase Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Russia, and Saudi Arabia’s baselines by 1.6 million b/d starting in May 2022. On the other hand, the deal did not clarify how the baseline is going to be implemented. Some nations like Algeria and Nigeria have appealed that OPEC+ revaluate their baselines as well.