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Natural Gas Selling Pressure Dampened by Strong LNG Demand

March Despite a major storage draw last week that was far more than usual for the fourth week in a row owing to the cold start of 2022, Natural Gas futures continued to fall on Friday. Meanwhile, output recovered from last week’s freezing temperatures as projections for less cold and decreased heating demand over the next two weeks knocked on pricing.

Domestic natural-gas supply declined by 222 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending February 4, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is in contrast to the consensus decline of 223 Bcf.

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) released a report ahead of the report. Reuters questioned 16 analysts, who predicted withdrawals ranging from 206 billion cubic feet to 232 billion cubic feet, with a median estimate of 223 billion cubic feet. According to a Bloomberg survey, projections as low as 202 Bcf were made, with a median of 223 Bcf. A 211 Bcf withdrawal was modelled by NGI. S&P Global Platts polled analysts, who predicted a 221 Bcf draw, putting the five-year average supply fall for the period at 150 Bcf.

The survey estimates for Thursday’s EIA weekly storage data suggest a draw of -221 to -223 Bcf, far higher than the 5-year average of -150 Bcf. Much of the core of the United States was colder than typical, thanks to a freezing Arctic blast that swept through the Plains into Texas late last week, while the West and East Coasts were warmer than normal. We anticipate a draw of -226-227 Bcf, which, if achieved, would bring deficits closer to -210 Bcf. Total stocks are presently at 2.101 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), down 441 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from a year ago and 215 billion cubic feet (Bcf) below the five-year average, according to the agency.

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