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Natural Gas Futures have made Modest Early Gains as Weather Forecast Changes Viewed as Minor

Natural gas futures prices were stable in early trade Thursday as the market continued to digest the latest set of government inventory data, which showed a lower-than-expected injection. As of 8:50 a.m. ET, the December contract is up 6.3 cents to $4.943/MMBtu, following a 9.9-cent drop the previous session.The business saw relatively tiny day-to-day variations in a variety of core indicators, and any adjustments in the most recent weather-driven demand Forecast were “negligible.”

Due to the Veterans Day holiday, the print was released a day earlier than normal, and it shifted slightly to the positive side of projections ahead of the report.According to the EIA, total Lower 48 inventories remained at 3,618 Bcf on November 5, 3.2 percent lower than the five-year average of 3,737 Bcf.This week’s figure was also the first time the reported build has fallen behind the five-year average injection rate since the week of September 10. The 7 Bcf injections were much lower than the 26 Bcf five-year average for the time.

“The EIA data from yesterday revealed tighter supply/demand balances, but much of it was likely due to unusually low wind, which will not be a factor in next week’s estimate,” Bespoke said. “In summary, it is tough to be anything other than neutral in terms of near-term sentiment, yet we will need to see some genuine cold show to prevent sending prices lower in the long run.”

In terms of specifics in the overnight Forecast, NatGasWeather reported significant heating degree day losses from the American GFS (Global Forecast System) overnight, with the model losing more than 10 HDD over the previous two days.

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