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Energy Information Administration AEO 2021 Side Cases Vary with Crude Oil Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2021 projects the volume of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports till the year 2050. It will expand a wide range based on its published side cases. In the AEO 2021, it was shown that U.S. LNG exports continue to grow throughout the 2020s. It would reach 13.7 billion cubic feet per day after 2030.

Across the cases, the LNG exports may vary approximately 8 Bcf/d to more than 27 Bcf/d. The LNG export volumes depend on crude oil and domestic natural gas prices. The U.S. price for LNG compares with the world LNG prices. It influences the new liquefaction capacity built. Energy Information Administration uses its Natural Gas Market Module (NGMM) to project the U.S. LNG supply prices compared to world markets using domestic natural gas prices and assumptions.

The NGMM compares these prices with the world LNG prices for markets in Asia and Europe to determine competitiveness. They compare the prices on the following basis:

  • Relative growth of natural gas consumption in markets
  • World oil prices
  • Relative change of LNG supply not sold under long-term contracts

The difference in the projected U.S. LNG exports in the Energy Information Administration AEO 2021 High and Low Oil price cases reflect the relationship between the world oil prices to that of the U.S. In the High Oil Price case, the Brent Crude oil prices grow to almost $180 per barrel by 2050. However, in the case of Low Oil Price, the oil remains lower than $50 per barrel during the projection period.

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